Utah St.

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	152.0
Current RPI:	152
Expected SOS:	110
Current SOS:	110
Current Record:	16-17
Expected Record:	16-17
Current Conf Record:	10-11
Expected Conf Record:	10-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-3
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	183
Expected OOC SOS:	186

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-17	152.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	A	65-59	L	0%
11-13	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	H	81-73	W	100%
11-15	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	83-47	W	100%
11-18	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	A	79-66	L	0%
11-20	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	A	83-79	L	0%
11-24	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	N	67-71	W	100%
11-25	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	N	63-77	W	100%
11-28	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	A	72-65	L	0%
12-2	BYU (67.0)	WCC	H	66-75	L	0%
12-6	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	H	62-59	W	100%
12-9	Utah (59.0)	P12	N	77-67	L	0%
12-20	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	H	91-74	W	100%
12-27	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	H	86-72	W	100%
12-30	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	A	79-59	L	0%
1-3	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	H	81-79	W	100%
1-6	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	78-85	W	100%
1-10	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	H	75-84	L	0%
1-13	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	A	83-57	L	0%
1-17	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	A	71-67	L	0%
1-20	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	H	77-85	L	0%
1-24	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	H	71-49	W	100%
1-27	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	A	62-65	W	100%
1-31	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	H	89-80	W	100%
2-7	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	A	83-65	L	0%
2-10	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	H	71-65	W	100%
2-14	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	A	78-63	L	0%
2-17	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	H	87-93	L	0%
2-24	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	A	75-65	L	0%
2-28	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	A	64-62	L	0%
3-3	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	H	79-67	W	100%
3-7	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	N	76-65	W	100%
3-8	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	N	75-78	W	100%
3-9	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	N	83-68	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Utah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Utah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Utah St.	MWC	26.44	26.44	47.41	47.41	-1.37	-1.37
New Mexico	MWC	5.43	5.43	53.33	53.33	0.36	0.36
Boise St.	MWC	5.31	5.31	77.78	77.78	2.95	2.95
UNLV	MWC	4.01	4.01	64.52	64.52	1.16	1.16
Wyoming	MWC	3.98	3.98	56.67	56.67	0.53	0.53
Nevada	MWC	3.93	3.93	78.12	78.12	2.21	2.21
Colorado St.	MWC	3.91	3.91	31.03	31.03	-1.48	-1.48
Air Force	MWC	3.90	3.90	33.33	33.33	-1.30	-1.30
Fresno St.	MWC	3.90	3.90	67.86	67.86	1.39	1.39
San Jose St.	MWC	3.87	3.87	7.41	7.41	-3.30	-3.30
San Diego St.	MWC	2.61	2.61	66.67	66.67	0.87	0.87
Weber St.	BSky	1.66	1.66	59.26	59.26	0.31	0.31
BYU	WCC	1.66	1.66	69.70	69.70	0.65	0.65
Montana St.	BSky	1.64	1.64	37.93	37.93	-0.40	-0.40
Portland St.	BSky	1.62	1.62	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1.61	1.61	12.90	12.90	-1.19	-1.19
Utah	P12	1.61	1.61	62.07	62.07	0.39	0.39
Gonzaga	WCC	1.61	1.61	87.88	87.88	1.22	1.22
UC Irvine	BW	1.56	1.56	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	1.52	1.52	28.57	28.57	-0.65	-0.65
Northeastern	CAA	1.52	1.52	70.97	70.97	0.64	0.64
Valparaiso	MVC	1.52	1.52	41.38	41.38	-0.26	-0.26
Youngstown St.	Horz	1.52	1.52	20.69	20.69	-0.89	-0.89
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.33	0.33	16.67	16.67	-0.22	-0.22
Southern Utah	BSky	0.30	0.30	36.67	36.67	-0.08	-0.08
Pacific	WCC	0.28	0.28	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.28	0.28	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
Oregon	P12	0.25	0.25	64.71	64.71	0.07	0.07
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.25	0.25	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.24	0.24	24.14	24.14	-0.13	-0.13
Santa Clara	WCC	0.24	0.24	34.48	34.48	-0.07	-0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.22	0.22	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.21	0.21	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.21	0.21	83.33	83.33	0.14	0.14
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.20	0.20	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Denver	Sum	0.20	0.20	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.19	0.19	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.19	0.19	84.85	84.85	0.13	0.13
North Dakota	BSky	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Idaho	BSky	0.17	0.17	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Evansville	MVC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.17	0.17	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
San Francisco	WCC	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Montana	BSky	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.15	0.15	84.38	84.38	0.10	0.10
UC Riverside	BW	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
UTEP	CUSA	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.14	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.14	0.14	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Pepperdine	WCC	0.12	0.12	16.13	16.13	-0.08	-0.08
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.11	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
TCU	B12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Butler	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	8.00	8.00	-0.06	-0.06
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.07	0.07	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Boston University	Pat	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.04	0.04	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.04	0.04	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02